A method for estimating the origin time of an ensuing mainshock by observations of preshock crustal seismic deformation


Published: Jan 1, 2001
Keywords:
Accelerating seismic deformation earthquake prediction precursory excitation Aegean area
B. C. PAPAZACHOS
G. F. KARAKAISIS
C. B. PAPAZACHOS
E. M. SCORDILIS
A. S. SAVVAIDIS
Abstract

Observations on accelerating crustal deformation due to the generation of intermediate magnitude preshocks in the Aegean area are used to propose a method for prediction of the origin time of an ensuing mainshock. The method is based on a precursory seismic excitation that occurs in the preshock region at a time correlated to the origin time of the oncoming mainshock. The uncertainty in this prediction is of the order of ± 1.5 years with relatively high confidence ('90%).

Article Details
  • Section
  • Seismology
Downloads
Download data is not yet available.
References
ANDERSEN, J.V., SORNETTE, D., AND LEUNG, K.T. 1997. Tri-critical behavior in rupture induced by disorder, Phys. Rev. Lett. 78, 2140 - 2143.
BOWMAN, D.D., OUILLON, G., SAMMIS, CG., SORNETTE, A. AND SORNETTE, D. 1998. An observational test of the critical earthquake concept, J. Geophys. Res. 103, 24359-24372.
BUFE, CG., AND VARNES, D.J. 1993. Predictive modelling of seismic cycle of the Great San Francisco Bay Region, J. Geophys. Res. 98, 9871-9883.
ELLSWORTH, W.L., LINDH, A.G., PRESCOTT, W.H. AND HERD, D.G. 1981. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the seismic circle. In Earthquake Prediction: An International Review (eds. Simpson, D.W. and Richards, P.G.) (AGU, Washington, D.C. 1981), 126-140.
EVISON, F.F. AND RHOADES, D.A. 1997. The precursory earthquake swarm in New Zealand, Journal of Geology and Geophysics 40, 537-547.
GUTENBERG, B. AND RICHTER, C. F. 1954. Seismicity of the earth and associated phenomena, (Hafner, New York 1954).
KARAKAISIS, G. F, KOUROUZIDIS, M. C. AND PAPAZACHOS, B. C. 1991. Behavior of the seismic activity during a single seismic cycle. International Conference on Earthquake prediction: State-of-the-art, Strasbourg, France, 15-18 October 1991, 47-54.
KNOPOFF, L., LEVSHINA, T, KEILIS-BOROK, V.J. AND MATTONI, C. 1996. Increased long-range intermediate magnitude earthquake activity prior to strong earthquakes in California, J.Geophys. Res. 101, 5779-5796.
MOGI, Κ., 1969. Some features of the recent seismic activity in and near Japan, 2, activity before and after great earthquakes, Bull. Earthquake Res. Inst., Univ. of Tokyo 47, 395-417.
PAPADOPOULOS, G.A. 1986. Long term earthquake prediction in the western Hellenic Arc, Earthquake Predic. Res. 4, 131-137.
PAPAZACHOS, B. C. AND PAPAZACHOS, C. B. 2000a. Accelerated preshock deformation of broad regions in the Aegean area, Pure appi, geophys. 157, 1663-1681.
PAPAZACHOS, C. B. AND PAPAZACHOS, B. C. 2000b. Precursory seismic deformation in the Aegean area, Annali di Geofìsica (submitted).
RALEIGH,C. Β., SIEH, Κ., SYKES, L.R. AND ANDERSON, D.L. 1982. Forecasting Southern California earthquakes, Science 217, 1097-1104.
PAPAZACHOS, B.C., COMNINAKIS, P.E., KARAKAISIS, G.F., KARAKOSTAS, B.G., PAPAIOANNOU, CH.A., PAPAZACHOS, C.B. AND SCORDILIS, E.M. 2000. A catalog of earthquakes in Greece and surrounding area for the period 550BC - 1999, Pubi. Geophys. Lab., Univ. of Thessaloniki, 1, 338pp.
SORNETTE, A. AND SORNETTE, D. 1990. Earthquake rupture as a critical point. Consequences for telluric precursors, Tectonophysics 179, 327-334.
SORNETTE, D., AND SAMMIS, C. G. 1995. Complex critical exponents from renormalization group theory of earthquakes: Implications for earthquake predictions, J. Phys. I. 5, 607-619.
SYKES, L.R. AND JAUME, S. 1990. Seismic activity on neighboring faults as a long term precursor to large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area, Nature 348, 595-599.
TOCHER, D. 1959. Seismic history of the San Francisco bay region, Calif. Div. Mines Spec. Rep. 57, 39-48.
TZANNIS, Α., VALLIANATOS, F AND MAKROPOULOS, K. 2000. Seismic and electric precursors to the 17-1-1983, M7 Kefallinia earthquake, Greece: signatures of a SOC system, Phys. Chem. Earth 25, 281-287.
Most read articles by the same author(s)