ON THE EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCES IN JAPAN AND THE SURROUNDING AREA VIA SEMI MARKOV MODELING

PDF
Published: Jul 27, 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.11866
Keywords:
semi-Markov model earthquake occurrences transition probabilities limiting behaviour Japan
C. Panorias
Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Operations Research Section, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
A. Papadopoulou
Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Operations Research Section, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
T. Tsapanos
Geophysical Laboratory, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
Abstract

In the present paper, the earthquake occurrences in the area of Japan, are studied by a semi Markov model which is considered homogeneous in time. The data applied refer to earthquakes of large magnitude (Mw>6.0) during the period 1900-2012. We consider 9 seismic zones derived from the typical 11 zones for the area of Japan, due to the lack of data for 3 zones (9-th,10-th and 11-th). Also, we define 3 groups for the magnitudes, corresponding to 6-7,7.1-8 and M> 8.0. Thus, we consider for our semi Markov model a finite state space, S={ ( ,)j i ZR | i=1,...9, j=1,2,3}, where i Z defines the i-th seismic zone and j R states the j-th magnitude scale. We applied the data to describe the interval transition probabilities for the states and the model's limiting behaviour for which is sufficient an interval of time of seven years. The time unit of the model is considered to be one day. Some interesting results, concerning the interval transition probabilities and the limiting state vector, are derived.

Article Details
  • Section
  • Seismology
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.

Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g. post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (preferably in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.

Downloads
Download data is not yet available.
References
Anagnos, T. and Kiremidjan, A.S., 1988. A review of earthquake occurrence models for seismic
analysis, Probabilistic Engin. Mechanics, 3, 3-11.
Ando, M., 1975. Source mechanisms and tectonic significance of historical earthquakes along
Nankai trough, Tectonophysics, 27, 119-140.
Cavers, M, and Vasudevan, K., 2015. Spatio-temporal Compex Markov Chains (SCMC) Model
Using Directed Graphs: Earthquakes, Pageoph., 172, 225-241.
Howard, R.A., 1971. Dynamic Probabilistic Systems, Vol. II, Wiley.
Ito, T., Yoshioka, S. and Miyazaki, S., 1999. Interplate coupling in southwest Japan deduced from
inversion analysis of GPS data, Phys. Erath Planet. Inter., 115, 17-34.
Ito, T., Yoshioka, S. and Miyazaki, S., 2000. Interplate coupling in northeast Japan deduced from
inversion analysis of GPS data, Phys. Erath Planet. Inter., 176, 117-130.
Kanamori, H., 1977. Seismic and aseismic slip along subduction zones and their tectonic
implications. In: Island Arcs, Deep Sea Trenches and Back-arc Basins, Amer. Geophys.
Union, Washington D.C., 163-174.
500 1000 1500 2000 2500
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Index
BB[1, ]
Karagrigoriou, A., Makrides, A., Tsapanos, T.M. and Vougiouka, G., 2015. Earthquake forecasting
based on multi-state system methodology, Methodol. Comput. Appl. Probab., doi:
1007/s11009-015-9451-x.
Karakaisis, G.F., 2000. Effects on zonation on the results of the application of the regional time
predictable seismicity model in Greece and Japan. Erath Planet, Space, 52, 221-228.
Knopoff, L., 1971. A stochastic model for occurrence of main sequences earthquakes, Rev. Geophys.
Space Phys., 1, 175-198.
Lomnitz-Adler, J., 1983. A statistical model of the earthquake process, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 73,
-862.
Matsuda, T., 1981. Active faults and damaging earthquakes in Japan-macroseismic zoning and
prediction fault zones. In: Earthquake Prediction, In: An international Review, Simpson,
D.W. and Richards, P.G., eds., AGU, Washington D.C., 279-289.
Matsuda, T., 1990. Seismic zoning map of Japanese islands with maximum magnitudes derived
from active fault data, Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst., Univ of Tokyo, 65, 289-314.
Musson, R.M.W., Tspanos, T.M. and Nakas, C.T., 2002. A power-law function for earthquake
interarrival tome and magnitude, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92(5), 1783-1794.
Nava, F.A., Herrera, C., Frez, J. and Glowacka, E., 2005. Seismic Hazard Using Markov Chains:
Application in Japan Area, Pageoph., 162,1347-1366.
Papazachos, B.C., Papdimitriou, E.E., Karakaisis, G.F. and Tsapanos, T.M., 1994. An application
of the time-and magnitude-predictable model for long-term prediction of strong shallow
earthquakes in the Japan area, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 84, 426-437.
Sato, T., Hirotsuka, S. and Mori, J., 2012. Coulomb stress change for the normal fault aftershocks
triggered near the Japan Trench by the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, Earth Planets
space, 64, 1239-1243.
Shcherbakov, R., Goda, K., Ivanian, A. and Atkinson, G.M., 2013. Aftershock statistics of major
subductiion earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 103, 3222-3234.
Scordilis, E.M., 2006. Empirical global relatins converting Ms and mb to moment magnitude, J.
Seismol., 10:225-236, doi: 10.107/s10950-006-9012-4.
Thatcher, W., 1984. The earthquake deformation cycle at Nankai trough, southwest Japan, J.
Geophys. Res., 89, 3087-3101.
Tsapanos, T.M., 2001. The Markov model as a pattern for earthquakes recurrence in South America,
Bull. Geolog. Soc. Greece, XXXIV/4, 1811-1617.
Tsapanos, T.M. and Papadopoulou, A.A., 1999. A discrete Markov model for earthquake
occurrences in Southern Alaska, J. Balk. Geophys. Soc., 2(3), 75-83.
Vere-Jones, D., 1966. A Markov model for aftershock occurrence, Pageoph., 64, 31-42
Votsi, I., Limnios, N., Tsaklidis, G. and Papadimitriou, E., 2014. Hidden Semi-Markov Modeling f
or the Estimation of Earthquake Occurrence Rates, Communications in Statistics-Theory an
d Methods, 43, 1484-1502.
Wesnouski, S.G., Scholz, C.H., Shimazaki, K. and Matsuda, T., 1984. Integration of geological and
seismological data for the analysis of seismic hazard: A case study of Japan, Bull. Seismol.
Soc. Am., 74, 687-708.