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A method for estimating the origin time of an ensuing mainshock by observations of preshock crustal seismic deformation

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B. C. PAPAZACHOS, G. F. KARAKAISIS, C. B. PAPAZACHOS, E. M. SCORDILIS, A. S. SAVVAIDIS
B. C. PAPAZACHOS, G. F. KARAKAISIS, C. B. PAPAZACHOS, E. M. SCORDILIS, A. S. SAVVAIDIS

Abstract


Observations on accelerating crustal deformation due to the generation of intermediate magnitude preshocks in the Aegean area are used to propose a method for prediction of the origin time of an ensuing mainshock. The method is based on a precursory seismic excitation that occurs in the preshock region at a time correlated to the origin time of the oncoming mainshock. The uncertainty in this prediction is of the order of ± 1.5 years with relatively high confidence ('90%).


Keywords


Accelerating seismic deformation; earthquake prediction; precursory excitation; Aegean area

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