A method for estimating the origin time of an ensuing mainshock by observations of preshock crustal seismic deformation

PDF
Published: Jan 1, 2001
DOI: https://doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.18118
Keywords:
Accelerating seismic deformation earthquake prediction precursory excitation Aegean area
B. C. PAPAZACHOS
Geophysical Laboratory, Aristotle University
G. F. KARAKAISIS
Geophysical Laboratory, Aristotle University
C. B. PAPAZACHOS
Geophysical Laboratory, Aristotle University
E. M. SCORDILIS
Geophysical Laboratory, Aristotle University
A. S. SAVVAIDIS
Geophysical Laboratory, Aristotle University
Abstract

Observations on accelerating crustal deformation due to the generation of intermediate magnitude preshocks in the Aegean area are used to propose a method for prediction of the origin time of an ensuing mainshock. The method is based on a precursory seismic excitation that occurs in the preshock region at a time correlated to the origin time of the oncoming mainshock. The uncertainty in this prediction is of the order of ± 1.5 years with relatively high confidence ('90%).

Article Details
  • Section
  • Seismology
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.

Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g. post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (preferably in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.

Downloads
Download data is not yet available.
References
ANDERSEN, J.V., SORNETTE, D., AND LEUNG, K.T. 1997. Tri-critical behavior in rupture induced by disorder, Phys. Rev. Lett. 78, 2140 - 2143.
BOWMAN, D.D., OUILLON, G., SAMMIS, CG., SORNETTE, A. AND SORNETTE, D. 1998. An observational test of the critical earthquake concept, J. Geophys. Res. 103, 24359-24372.
BUFE, CG., AND VARNES, D.J. 1993. Predictive modelling of seismic cycle of the Great San Francisco Bay Region, J. Geophys. Res. 98, 9871-9883.
ELLSWORTH, W.L., LINDH, A.G., PRESCOTT, W.H. AND HERD, D.G. 1981. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the seismic circle. In Earthquake Prediction: An International Review (eds. Simpson, D.W. and Richards, P.G.) (AGU, Washington, D.C. 1981), 126-140.
EVISON, F.F. AND RHOADES, D.A. 1997. The precursory earthquake swarm in New Zealand, Journal of Geology and Geophysics 40, 537-547.
GUTENBERG, B. AND RICHTER, C. F. 1954. Seismicity of the earth and associated phenomena, (Hafner, New York 1954).
KARAKAISIS, G. F, KOUROUZIDIS, M. C. AND PAPAZACHOS, B. C. 1991. Behavior of the seismic activity during a single seismic cycle. International Conference on Earthquake prediction: State-of-the-art, Strasbourg, France, 15-18 October 1991, 47-54.
KNOPOFF, L., LEVSHINA, T, KEILIS-BOROK, V.J. AND MATTONI, C. 1996. Increased long-range intermediate magnitude earthquake activity prior to strong earthquakes in California, J.Geophys. Res. 101, 5779-5796.
MOGI, Κ., 1969. Some features of the recent seismic activity in and near Japan, 2, activity before and after great earthquakes, Bull. Earthquake Res. Inst., Univ. of Tokyo 47, 395-417.
PAPADOPOULOS, G.A. 1986. Long term earthquake prediction in the western Hellenic Arc, Earthquake Predic. Res. 4, 131-137.
PAPAZACHOS, B. C. AND PAPAZACHOS, C. B. 2000a. Accelerated preshock deformation of broad regions in the Aegean area, Pure appi, geophys. 157, 1663-1681.
PAPAZACHOS, C. B. AND PAPAZACHOS, B. C. 2000b. Precursory seismic deformation in the Aegean area, Annali di Geofìsica (submitted).
RALEIGH,C. Β., SIEH, Κ., SYKES, L.R. AND ANDERSON, D.L. 1982. Forecasting Southern California earthquakes, Science 217, 1097-1104.
PAPAZACHOS, B.C., COMNINAKIS, P.E., KARAKAISIS, G.F., KARAKOSTAS, B.G., PAPAIOANNOU, CH.A., PAPAZACHOS, C.B. AND SCORDILIS, E.M. 2000. A catalog of earthquakes in Greece and surrounding area for the period 550BC - 1999, Pubi. Geophys. Lab., Univ. of Thessaloniki, 1, 338pp.
SORNETTE, A. AND SORNETTE, D. 1990. Earthquake rupture as a critical point. Consequences for telluric precursors, Tectonophysics 179, 327-334.
SORNETTE, D., AND SAMMIS, C. G. 1995. Complex critical exponents from renormalization group theory of earthquakes: Implications for earthquake predictions, J. Phys. I. 5, 607-619.
SYKES, L.R. AND JAUME, S. 1990. Seismic activity on neighboring faults as a long term precursor to large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area, Nature 348, 595-599.
TOCHER, D. 1959. Seismic history of the San Francisco bay region, Calif. Div. Mines Spec. Rep. 57, 39-48.
TZANNIS, Α., VALLIANATOS, F AND MAKROPOULOS, K. 2000. Seismic and electric precursors to the 17-1-1983, M7 Kefallinia earthquake, Greece: signatures of a SOC system, Phys. Chem. Earth 25, 281-287.
Most read articles by the same author(s)