Transitions to democracy: what theory to grasp complexity?
Published:
Dec 3, 2015
Keywords:
transitions democratization transitional mechanism
Abstract
When analysing transitions towards democracy during the last three decades of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century, it is readily apparent that the variety of empirical processes is so wide that achieving meaningful theoretical results is extremely difficult, as the existing literature on the topic shows explicitly. This paper addresses the key theoretical questions that need to be dealt with by the empirical analysis of the transitional process. Are there key, recurring actors and factors that we should take into account when analysing all cases in depth? Why is a focus on installation (not only on transition) salient? Are there recurring patterns of successful transitions? Are there key recurring mechanisms that critically explain successful transitions? And are there obstacles that make it impossible to achieve a successful transition and doom such a process to failure? On the basis of existing knowledge in the subfield, an attempt is made to reply to these questions, and in this way to single out the main theoretical results achieved in the field.
Article Details
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Morlino, L. A. (2015). Transitions to democracy: what theory to grasp complexity?. Historein, 15(1), 13–31. https://doi.org/10.12681/historein.288
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References
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Carothers, Thomas. “The End of Transition Paradigm.” Journal of Democracy 13/1 (2002): 5–21.
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Della Porta, Donatella. Mobilizing for Democracy: Comparing 1989 and 2011. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 2014.
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Doorenspleet, Renske. “The Structural Context of Recent Transitions to Democracy.” European Journal of Political Research 43/3 (2004): 309–335.
Elster, Jon. “Social Norms and Economic Theory.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 3/4 (1989): 99–117.
Epstein, David L., Robert Bates, Jack Goldstone, Ida Kristensen and Sharyn O’Halloran. “Democratic Transitions.” American Journal of Political Science 50/3 (2006): 551–569.
Ethier, Deane, ed. Democratic Transition and Consolidation in Southern Europe, Latin America and Southeast Asia. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1990.
Geddes, Barbara, Joseph Wright and Erika Frantz. “Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions: A New Data Set.” Perspectives on Politics 12/2 (2014): 313–331.
Geddes, Barbara. “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years?” Annual Review of Political Science 2 (1999): 115–144.
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Haerpfer, Christian W., Patrick Bernhagen, Ronald F. Inglehart and Christian Welzel, eds. Democratization. Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2009.
Haggard, Stephan, and Robert R. Kaufman. “Inequality and Regime Change: Democratic Transitions and the Stability of Democratic Rule.” American Political Science Review 106/3 (2012): 495–516.
Higley, John, and Richard Gunther, eds. Elites and Democratic Consolidation in Latin America and Southern Europe. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992.
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Karl, Terry Lynn, and Philippe C. Schmitter. “Modes of Transition in Latin America, Southern and Eastern Europe.” International Social Science Journal 128/2 (1991): 269–84.
Kitschelt, Herbert. “Political Regime Change: Structure and Process-driven Explanations.” The American Political Science Review 86/4 (1992): 1028–1034.
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Markoff, John. Waves of Democracy: Social Movements and Political Change. Thousand Oaks: Pine Forge Press, 1996.
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Morlino, Leonardo, and Amichai Magen. “Methods of Influence, Layers of Impact, Cycles of Change: A Framework for Analysis.” In International Actors, Democratization and the Rule of Law: Anchoring Democracy, edited by Amichai Magen and Leonardo Morlino, 27–52. London: Routledge, 2008.
Morlino, Leonardo, and Amichai Magen. “Scope, Depth and Limits of External Influence: Conclusions.” In International Actors, Democratization and the Rule of Law: Anchoring Democracy, edited by Amichai Magen and Leonardo Morlino, 224–258. London: Routledge, 2008.
Morlino, Leonardo. “How We Are, or how We Say that We Are: The Post-war Comparative Politics of Hans Daadler and Others.” European Journal of Political Research 37/4 (2000): 497–516.
Morlino, Leonardo. Changes for Democracy: Actors, Structures, Processes. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012.
Morlino, Leonardo. Democracy Between Consolidation and Crisis: Parties, Groups, and Citizens in Southern Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1998.
Morlino, Leonardo. La calidad de las democracias en América Latina. Stockholm, IDEA International, 2014.
Munck, Gerardo L. “Democracy Studies: Agendas, Findings, Challenges.” In Democratization: The State of the Art, edited by Dirk Berg-Schlosser, 45–68. Opladen: Barbara Budrich, 2007.
Munck, Gerardo L., and Carol Skalnik Leff. “Modes of Transition and Democratization: South America and Eastern Europe in Comparative Perspective.” Comparative Politics 29/3 (1997): 343–362.
Norris, Pippa. Driving Democracy: Do Power-sharing Institutions Work? Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008.
O’Donnell, Guillermo, and Philippe C. Schmitter. “Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies.” In Transition from Authoritarian Rule, edited by Guillermo O’Donnell, Philippe C. Schmitter and Laurence Whitehead, 53–56. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986.
O’Donnell, Guillermo, Philippe C. Schmitter, and Lawrence Whitehead, eds. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Comparative Perspectives. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986.
O’Donnell, Guillermo. “Illusions about Consolidations.” Journal of Democracy 7/2 (1996): 34–51.
Offe, Klaus. “Capitalism by Democratic Design? Democratic Theory Facing the Triple Transition in East Central Europe.” Social Research 58/4 (1991): 865–892.
Ostrom, Elinor. “Beyond Positivism: An Introduction to this Volume.” In Strategies of Political Inquiry, edited by Elinor Ostrom, 11–28. Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982.
Perez Diaz, Victor. The Return of the Civil Society. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1993.
Pevehouse, Jon C. “Democracy from Outside-in? International Organizations and Democratization.” International Organization 56/3 (2002): 515–549.
Pierson, Paul. Politics in Time: History, Institutions, and Social Analysis. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2004.
Pridham, Geoffrey, Eric Herring and George Sanford, eds. Building Democracy? The International Dimension of Democratisation in Eastern Europe. Leicester: Leicester University Press, 1994.
Pridham, Geoffrey. The Dynamics of Democratization: A Comparative Approach. London: Continuum, 2000.
Przeworski, Adam, Michael E. Alvarez, José A. Cheibub and Fernando Limongi. Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-being in the World, 1950–1990. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000.
Przeworski, Adam. “Democracy and Economic Development.” in The Evolution of Political Knowledge, edited by Edward D. Mansfield and Richard Sisson, 300–324. Columbus: Ohio State University Press, 2004.
Przeworski, Adam. “Some Problems in the Study of the Transition to Democracy.” In Transitions from Authoritarian Rules, edited by Guillermo O’Donnell, Philippe C. Schmitter and Laurence Whitehead, 47–63. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986.
Sartori, Giovanni. “How Far Can Free Government Travel?” Journal of Democracy 6/3 (1995): 101–111.
Schedler, Andreas, and Javier Santiso. “Democracy and Time: An Invitation.” International Political Science Review/Revue internationale de science politique 19/1 (1998): 5–18.
Schimmelfennig, Frank, and Ulrich Sedelmeier, eds. The Europeanization of Central and Eastern Europe. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2005.
Schmitter, Philippe C. “Reflections on ‘Transitology’ – Before and After,” in Reflections on Uneven Democracies: The Legacy of Guillermo O’Donnell, edited by Daniel M. Brinks, Marcelo Leiras and Scott Mainwaring, 71–86 (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2014).
Schmitter, Philippe C., and Javier Santiso. “Three Temporal Dimensions to the Consolidation of Democracy.” International Political Science Review 19/1 (1998): 69–92.
Sen, Amartya. “Democracy as Universal Value.” Journal of Democracy 10/3 (1999): 3–17.
Sørensen, Georg. Democracy and Democratization: Processes and Prospects in a Changing World. Boulder: Westview, 2008.
Stepan, Alfred. “Paths toward Redemocratization: Theoretical and Comparative Considerations.” In Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Comparative Perspectives, edited by Guillermo O’Donnell, Philippe C. Schmitter and Laurence Whitehead, 65–84. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986.
Stoner, Kathryn, and Michael McFaul, eds. Transitions to Democracy: A Comparative Perspective. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2013.
Stoner, Kathryn, Larry Diamond, Desha Girod and Michael McFaul. “Transitional Successes and Failures: The International–Domestic Nexus.” In Transitions to Democracy: A Comparative Perspective, edited by Kathryn Stoner and Michael McFaul, 3–26. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2013.
Tilly, Charles. “Mechanisms in Political Processes.” Annual Review of Political Science 4 (2001): 21–41.
Tsebelis, George. Nested Games: Rational Choice in Comparative Politics. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990.
Tsebelis, George. Veto Players: How Political Institutions Work. Princeton: Princeton University, 2002.
Vanhanen, Tatu. Prospects of Democracy: A Study of 172 Countries. London: Routledge, 1997.
Weyland, Kurt. “The Arab Spring: Why the Surprising Similarities with the Revolutionary Wave of 1848?” Perspectives on Politics 10/4 (2012): 917–934.
Whitehead, Laurence. “Three International Dimensions of Democratization.” In The International Dimensions of Democratization: Europe and the Americas, edited by Laurence Whitehead, 3–25. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996.
Whitehead, Laurence. Democratization: Theory and Experience. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002.
Berg-Schlosser, Dirk, ed. Democratization: The State of the Art. Opladen: Barbara Budrich, 2007.
Bermeo, Nancy. “Democracy and the Lessons of Dictatorship.” Comparative Politics 24/3 (1992): 273–291.
Boix, Carles. Democracy and Redistribution. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003.
Bunce, Valerie J. “Comparative Democratization: Big and Bounded Generalizations.” Comparative Political Studies 33/6–7 (2000): 703–734.
Bunce, Valerie J., and Sharon L. Wolchik. “Favorable Conditions and Electoral Revolutions.” Journal of Democracy 17/4 (2006): 5–18.
Carothers, Thomas. “The End of Transition Paradigm.” Journal of Democracy 13/1 (2002): 5–21.
Ciprut, José V., ed. Indeterminacy: The Mapped, the Navigable, and the Uncharted. London: MIT Press, 2008.
Collier, Ruth Berins. Pathways toward Democracy: The Working Class and Elites in Western Europe and Latin America. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1999.
Colomer, Josep M. Game Theory and Transition to Democracy: The Spanish Model. Aldershot: Edward Elgar, 1995.
Colomer, Josep M. Strategic Transitions: Game Theory and Democratization. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2000.
Costa Pinto, Antonio, and Leonardo Morlino, eds. Dealing with the Legacy of Authoritarianism: The “Politics of the Past” in Southern European Democracies; Comparative Perspectives. London: Routledge, 2011.
Della Porta, Donatella. Mobilizing for Democracy: Comparing 1989 and 2011. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 2014.
Di Palma, Giuseppe. To Craft Democracies: An Essay on Democratic Transitions. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990.
Diamond, Larry J. “Economic Development and Democracy Reconsidered.” In Reexamining Democracy: Essays in Honor of Seymour Martin Lipset, edited by Gary Marks and Larry Diamond, 93–139. London: Sage, 1992.
Diamond, Larry J. The Spirit of Democracy: The Struggle to Build Free Societies throughout the World. New York: Times Books/Henry Holt, 2008.
Doorenspleet, Renske. “The Structural Context of Recent Transitions to Democracy.” European Journal of Political Research 43/3 (2004): 309–335.
Elster, Jon. “Social Norms and Economic Theory.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 3/4 (1989): 99–117.
Epstein, David L., Robert Bates, Jack Goldstone, Ida Kristensen and Sharyn O’Halloran. “Democratic Transitions.” American Journal of Political Science 50/3 (2006): 551–569.
Ethier, Deane, ed. Democratic Transition and Consolidation in Southern Europe, Latin America and Southeast Asia. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1990.
Geddes, Barbara, Joseph Wright and Erika Frantz. “Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions: A New Data Set.” Perspectives on Politics 12/2 (2014): 313–331.
Geddes, Barbara. “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years?” Annual Review of Political Science 2 (1999): 115–144.
Gill, Graeme, The Dynamics of Democratization: Elites. Civil Society and the Transition Process. London: Macmillan, 2000.
Grugel, Jean. Democratization: A Critical Introduction. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2002.
Haerpfer, Christian W., Patrick Bernhagen, Ronald F. Inglehart and Christian Welzel, eds. Democratization. Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2009.
Haggard, Stephan, and Robert R. Kaufman. “Inequality and Regime Change: Democratic Transitions and the Stability of Democratic Rule.” American Political Science Review 106/3 (2012): 495–516.
Higley, John, and Richard Gunther, eds. Elites and Democratic Consolidation in Latin America and Southern Europe. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992.
Huntington, Samuel P. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991.
Karl, Terry Lynn, and Philippe C. Schmitter. “Modes of Transition in Latin America, Southern and Eastern Europe.” International Social Science Journal 128/2 (1991): 269–84.
Kitschelt, Herbert. “Political Regime Change: Structure and Process-driven Explanations.” The American Political Science Review 86/4 (1992): 1028–1034.
Linz, Juan J. “Democracy’s Time Constraints.” International Political Science Review 19/1 (1998): 19–37.
Linz, Juan J., and Alfred Stepan, eds. The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978.
Linz, Juan J., and Alfred Stepan. Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America and Post-communist Europe. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996.
Lipset, Seymour M. Political Man: The Social Bases of Politics. New York: Doubleday, 1960.
Magen, Amichai, and Leonardo Morlino, eds. International Actors, Democratization and the Rule of Law: Anchoring Democracy? London: Routledge, 2008.
Mainwaring, Scott, and Anibal Perez-Liñan. Democracies and Dictatorships in Latin America: Emergence, Survival, and Fall. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013.
Markoff, John. Waves of Democracy: Social Movements and Political Change. Thousand Oaks: Pine Forge Press, 1996.
McFaul, Michael. “The Fourth Wave of Democracy and Dictatorship: Non-cooperative Transitions in the Post-communist World.” World Politics 54/2 (2002): 212–244.
Morlino, Leonardo, and Amichai Magen. “Methods of Influence, Layers of Impact, Cycles of Change: A Framework for Analysis.” In International Actors, Democratization and the Rule of Law: Anchoring Democracy, edited by Amichai Magen and Leonardo Morlino, 27–52. London: Routledge, 2008.
Morlino, Leonardo, and Amichai Magen. “Scope, Depth and Limits of External Influence: Conclusions.” In International Actors, Democratization and the Rule of Law: Anchoring Democracy, edited by Amichai Magen and Leonardo Morlino, 224–258. London: Routledge, 2008.
Morlino, Leonardo. “How We Are, or how We Say that We Are: The Post-war Comparative Politics of Hans Daadler and Others.” European Journal of Political Research 37/4 (2000): 497–516.
Morlino, Leonardo. Changes for Democracy: Actors, Structures, Processes. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012.
Morlino, Leonardo. Democracy Between Consolidation and Crisis: Parties, Groups, and Citizens in Southern Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1998.
Morlino, Leonardo. La calidad de las democracias en América Latina. Stockholm, IDEA International, 2014.
Munck, Gerardo L. “Democracy Studies: Agendas, Findings, Challenges.” In Democratization: The State of the Art, edited by Dirk Berg-Schlosser, 45–68. Opladen: Barbara Budrich, 2007.
Munck, Gerardo L., and Carol Skalnik Leff. “Modes of Transition and Democratization: South America and Eastern Europe in Comparative Perspective.” Comparative Politics 29/3 (1997): 343–362.
Norris, Pippa. Driving Democracy: Do Power-sharing Institutions Work? Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008.
O’Donnell, Guillermo, and Philippe C. Schmitter. “Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies.” In Transition from Authoritarian Rule, edited by Guillermo O’Donnell, Philippe C. Schmitter and Laurence Whitehead, 53–56. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986.
O’Donnell, Guillermo, Philippe C. Schmitter, and Lawrence Whitehead, eds. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Comparative Perspectives. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986.
O’Donnell, Guillermo. “Illusions about Consolidations.” Journal of Democracy 7/2 (1996): 34–51.
Offe, Klaus. “Capitalism by Democratic Design? Democratic Theory Facing the Triple Transition in East Central Europe.” Social Research 58/4 (1991): 865–892.
Ostrom, Elinor. “Beyond Positivism: An Introduction to this Volume.” In Strategies of Political Inquiry, edited by Elinor Ostrom, 11–28. Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982.
Perez Diaz, Victor. The Return of the Civil Society. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1993.
Pevehouse, Jon C. “Democracy from Outside-in? International Organizations and Democratization.” International Organization 56/3 (2002): 515–549.
Pierson, Paul. Politics in Time: History, Institutions, and Social Analysis. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2004.
Pridham, Geoffrey, Eric Herring and George Sanford, eds. Building Democracy? The International Dimension of Democratisation in Eastern Europe. Leicester: Leicester University Press, 1994.
Pridham, Geoffrey. The Dynamics of Democratization: A Comparative Approach. London: Continuum, 2000.
Przeworski, Adam, Michael E. Alvarez, José A. Cheibub and Fernando Limongi. Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-being in the World, 1950–1990. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000.
Przeworski, Adam. “Democracy and Economic Development.” in The Evolution of Political Knowledge, edited by Edward D. Mansfield and Richard Sisson, 300–324. Columbus: Ohio State University Press, 2004.
Przeworski, Adam. “Some Problems in the Study of the Transition to Democracy.” In Transitions from Authoritarian Rules, edited by Guillermo O’Donnell, Philippe C. Schmitter and Laurence Whitehead, 47–63. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986.
Sartori, Giovanni. “How Far Can Free Government Travel?” Journal of Democracy 6/3 (1995): 101–111.
Schedler, Andreas, and Javier Santiso. “Democracy and Time: An Invitation.” International Political Science Review/Revue internationale de science politique 19/1 (1998): 5–18.
Schimmelfennig, Frank, and Ulrich Sedelmeier, eds. The Europeanization of Central and Eastern Europe. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2005.
Schmitter, Philippe C. “Reflections on ‘Transitology’ – Before and After,” in Reflections on Uneven Democracies: The Legacy of Guillermo O’Donnell, edited by Daniel M. Brinks, Marcelo Leiras and Scott Mainwaring, 71–86 (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2014).
Schmitter, Philippe C., and Javier Santiso. “Three Temporal Dimensions to the Consolidation of Democracy.” International Political Science Review 19/1 (1998): 69–92.
Sen, Amartya. “Democracy as Universal Value.” Journal of Democracy 10/3 (1999): 3–17.
Sørensen, Georg. Democracy and Democratization: Processes and Prospects in a Changing World. Boulder: Westview, 2008.
Stepan, Alfred. “Paths toward Redemocratization: Theoretical and Comparative Considerations.” In Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Comparative Perspectives, edited by Guillermo O’Donnell, Philippe C. Schmitter and Laurence Whitehead, 65–84. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986.
Stoner, Kathryn, and Michael McFaul, eds. Transitions to Democracy: A Comparative Perspective. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2013.
Stoner, Kathryn, Larry Diamond, Desha Girod and Michael McFaul. “Transitional Successes and Failures: The International–Domestic Nexus.” In Transitions to Democracy: A Comparative Perspective, edited by Kathryn Stoner and Michael McFaul, 3–26. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2013.
Tilly, Charles. “Mechanisms in Political Processes.” Annual Review of Political Science 4 (2001): 21–41.
Tsebelis, George. Nested Games: Rational Choice in Comparative Politics. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990.
Tsebelis, George. Veto Players: How Political Institutions Work. Princeton: Princeton University, 2002.
Vanhanen, Tatu. Prospects of Democracy: A Study of 172 Countries. London: Routledge, 1997.
Weyland, Kurt. “The Arab Spring: Why the Surprising Similarities with the Revolutionary Wave of 1848?” Perspectives on Politics 10/4 (2012): 917–934.
Whitehead, Laurence. “Three International Dimensions of Democratization.” In The International Dimensions of Democratization: Europe and the Americas, edited by Laurence Whitehead, 3–25. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996.
Whitehead, Laurence. Democratization: Theory and Experience. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002.
