Αξιολόγηση μη γραμμικών μαθηματικών προτύπων για την περιγραφή της ανάπτυξης και της γονιμότητας της καρπόκαψας της μηλιάς σε σταθερές θερμοκρασίες

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Δημοσιευμένα: Jan 8, 2011
DOI: https://doi.org/10.12681/eh.11501
H. Ranjbar Aghdam
Department of Entomology, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, P.O. Box 14115–336, Tehran, Iran
Y. Fathipour
Department of Entomology, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, P.O. Box 14115–336, Tehran, Iran
D. C. Kontodimas
Μπενάκειο Φυτοπαθολογικό Ινστιτούτο, Στεφάνου Δέλτα 8, 14561, Κηφισιά
Περίληψη

Μελετήθηκε η ανάπτυξη των ατελών σταδίων και η γονιμότητα των θηλέων της καρπόκαψας της μηλιάς Cydia pomonella (Linnaeus) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) σε σταθερές θερμοκρασίες. Για την καλύτερη περιγραφή των δύο αυτών βιολογικών παραμέτρων ακολούθησε αξιολόγηση μη γραμμικών μαθηματικών υποδειγμάτων η οποία, εκτός από τον συντελεστή προσδιορισμού (R2) και το άθροισμα τετραγώνων του υπολοίπου (RSS), βασίστηκε επιπλέον και στον προσαρμοσμένο συντελεστή προσδιορισμού (R2adj) και στο πληροφοριακό κριτήριο του Akaike (Akaike information criterion - AIC). Δοκιμάστηκαν οι εξισώσεις των Enkegaard, Αναλυτή, Bieri 1 και Bieri 2, οι οποίες έδειξαν καλή προσαρμογή στα δεδομένα, ιδιαίτερα της ανάπτυξης των ατελών σταδίων [R2, R2adj, RSS και AIC κυμάνθηκαν από 0,9673-0,9917, 0,8601-0,9861, 0,08-6,7x10-4 και (-75,29) – (-46,26) αντίστοιχα]. Η ιδανική θερμοκρασία ανάπτυξης (Topt) και το ανώτερο θερμοκρασιακό όριο (Tmax) υπολογίστηκαν ικανοποιητικά από όλα τα πρότυπα (Topt: 29,9-31,2oC και Tmax: 35,9-36,7oC). Το κατώτερο θερμοκρασιακό όριο (Tmin) υπολογίστηκε ικανοποιητικά από την εξίσωση Bieri-1 (9,9-10,8oC) ενώ υποεκτιμήθηκε από την εξίσωση Αναλυτή (7,0-8,4oC). Στα δεδομένα της γονιμότητας υπήρξε καλύτερη προσαρμογή στους 30oC, (δηλαδή κοντά στην ιδανική θερμοκρασία) [R2 ,R2adj, RSS και AIC κυμάνθηκαν από 0,6966-0,7744, 0,5756-0,6455, 2,44-3,33 x10-4 και (-9,15)-7,15 αντίστοιχα].

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