Published: Jan 25, 2010
Greece strong earthquakes coseismic stress changes stress transfer earthquake probabilities seismic hazard
P. M. Paradisopoulou
E. E. Papadimitriou
V. G. Karakostas
S. Lasocki
J. Mirek
A. Kilias
The coseismic stress changes due to strong earthquakes (M>6.5) that occurred in Greece and its adjacent areas since the beginning of the 20th century (instrumental era) are calculated and the future seismic hazard expressed in terms of the probabilities of occurrence of M≥6.5 events is assessed. Calculations of the change in Coulomb failure stress reveal that 61 out of 67 ruptures were brought closer to failure by the preceding shocks. A new insight on the evaluation of future seismic hazards, in the study area, is given by translating the calculated coseismic stress changes into earthquake probability. We incorporated the effect of stress change into the time–depended probability estimates using an earthquake nucleation constitutive relation, which includes both permanent and transient effects of stress changes. Taking into account the current stress changes onto each major fault, the probability calculations were performed and given for the whole study area during the next 30 years
Article Details
  • Section
  • Seismology
Download data is not yet available.
Ambraseys, N. N., 2002. The seismic activity of the Marmara Sea region over the last 2000 years. Bulletin
Seismological Society of America 92, 1-18.
Ambraseys, N. N., and J. A. Jackson, 2000. Seismicity of Marmara (Turkey) since 1500. Geophysical
Journal International 141, F1-F6.
Briole, P., Rigo, A. Lyon-Caen, H., Ruegg, J.C., Papazissi,K., Mitsakaki, C., Balodimou, A., Veis,G.,
Hatzfeld, D. and Deschamps, A., 2000. Active deformation of the Corinth rift, Greece: Results from
repeated Global Positioning System surveys between 1990 and 1995. Journal of Geophysical Research
, 605-625.
Chatzipetros, S., Kokkalas, S., Pavlides, S., and Koukouvelas, I., 2005. Palaeoseismic data and their implication
for active deformation in Greece, Journal of Geodynamics, 40, 170-188A.
Collier, R. E., Pantosti, D., D’addezio, G., De Martini, P.M., Masana, E. and Sakellariou, D., 1998. Paleoseismicity
of the 1981 Corinth earthquake fault: seismic contribution to extensional strain in central
Greece and implications for seismic hazard. Journal of Geophysical Research 103, 30001-30019.
Cornell, C. A., Wu, S. C., Winterstein, S. R., Dieterich, J. H. and Simpson, R. W., 1968. Seismic hazard
induced by mechanically interactive fault segments. Bulletin Seismological Society of America 83,
Deng, J. and Sykes, L., 1997. Evolution of the stress field in Southern California and triggering of moderate
size earthquakes: A 200–year perspective. Journal of Geophysical Research 102, 9859–9886.
Dieterich, J. H., 1994. A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake
clustering. Journal of Geophysical Research 99, 2601–2618.
Dieterich, J. H. and Kilgore, B., 1996. Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences U.S.A, 93, 3787–3794.
Erikson, L., 1986. User’s manual for DIS3D: A three–dimensional dislocation program with applications
to faulting in the Earth. Master’s Thesis, Stanford Univ., Stanford, Calif., pp. 167.
Hagiwara, Y., 1974. Probability of earthquake occurrence as obtained from a Weibull distribution analysis
of crustal strain, Tectonophysics, 23, 313-318.
Harris, R. A., 1998. Introduction to special section: Stress triggers, stress shadows and implications for
seismic hazard. Journal of Geophysical Research 103, 24,347-24,358.
Harris, R. and Simpson, R., 1998. Suppression of Large Earthquakes by Stress Shadows: A Comparison
of Coulomb and Rate – and – State Failure. Journal of Geophysical Research 103, 24439–24451.
Hubert-Ferrari, A., Barka, A., Jacques, E., Nalbat, S.S., Meyer, B., Armijo, R., Tapponnier, P. and King,
C. P. G., 2000. Seismic hazard in the Sea of Marmara following the 17 August 1999 earthquake. Nature
, 269-272.
Klinger, Y., Sieh, K., Altunel, E., Akoglu, A., Barka, A., Dawson, T., Gonzalez, T., Meltzner, A. and Rockwell,
T., 2003. Paleoseismic Evidence of Characteristic Slip on the Western Segment of the North Anatolian
Fault, Turkey. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America 93, 2317–2332.
Koukouvelas, I.K., Stamatopoulos, L., Katsanopoulou, D. and Pavlides, S., 2001. A palaeoseismological
and geoarchaeological investigation of the Eliki fault, Gulf of Corinth, Greece. Journal of Structural
Geology 23, 531-543.
Kurcer, A., Chatzipetros, A., Tutkun, S. Z., Pavlides, S., Ates, O. and Valkaniotis, S., 2008. The Yenice–Gonen
active fault (NW Turkey): Active tectonics and palaeoseismology. Tectonophysics, 453, 263–275.
Nishenko, S. P. and Buland R., 1987. A generic recurrence interval distribution for earthquake forecasting.
Bulletin Seismological Society of America 77, 1382–1399.
Okada, Y., 1992. Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half space. Bulletin of SeismoXLIII,
No 4 – 2123
logical Society of America 82, 1018-1040.
Palyvos, N., Pantosti, D., Zabci, C. and D’ Addezio, G. 2007. Paleoseismological evidence of recent
earthquakes on the 1967 Mudurnu valley earthquake segment of the North Anatolian Fault zone. Bulletin
Seismological Society of America 97, 1646–1661.
Pantosti, D., De Martini, P.M., Papanastassiou, D., Lemeille, F., Palyvos, N. and Stavrakakis, G. 2004.
Paleoseismological Trenching across the Atalanti Fault (Central Greece): Evidence for the Ancestors
of the 1894. Earthquake during the Middle Age and Roman Times. Bulletin Seismological Society of
America 94, 2, 531-549.
Pantosti, D., Pucci, S., Palyvos, N., De Martini, P. M., D’ Addezio, G., Collins, P. E. F. and Zabci, C., 2008.
Paleoearthquakes of the Düzce fault (North Anatolian Fault Zone): Insights for large surface faulting
earthquake recurrence. Journal of Geophysical Research 113, doi:10.1029/2006JB004679.
Papazachos, B. C. and Papazachou, C., 2003. The earthquakes of Greece. Ziti publications, Thessaloniki,
pp. 289.
Paradisopoulou, P. M., Papadimitriou, E. E., Karakostas, V. G., Taymaz, T., Kilas, A., and Yolsal, S.,
(2010). Seismic hazard evaluation in western Turkey as revealed by stress transfer and time-dependent
probability calculations. Pure and Applied Geophysics doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0085-1.
Parsons, T., 2004. Recalculated probability of M≥7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey.
Journal of Geophysical Research 109, doi:10.1029/2003JB002667.
Parsons, T., 2005. Significance of stress transfer in time–dependent earthquake probability calculations.
Journal of Geophysical Research 110, doi: 10.1029/2004JB003190.
Parsons, T., Toda, S., Stein, R. S., Barka, A. and Dieterich, J. H. (2000). Heightened odds of large earthquakes
near Istanbul: An interaction–based probability calculation, Science, 288, 661–665.
Pavlides S.B., Valkaniotis S., Ganas A., Keramydas D. and Sboras S., 2004. The Atalanti active fault: reevaluation
using new heological data. Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece vol. XXXVI, Proceedings
of the 10th International Congress, Thessaloniki, 1560-1567
Pondard, N., Armijo, R., King, G. C. P., Meyer, B. and Flerit, F., 2007. Fault interactions in the Sea of Marmara
pull–apart (North Anatolian Fault): earthquake clustering and propagating earthquake sequences.
Geophysical Journal International 171, 1185–1197.
Rockwell, T., Barka, A., Dawson, T., Akyuz, S. and Thorup, K., 2001. Paleoseismology of the Gazikoy–
Saros segment of the North Anatolia fault, northwestern Turkey: Comparison of the historical and paleoseismic
records, implications of regional seismic hazard and models of earthquake recurrence.
Journal of Seismology 5, 433–448.
Scholz, C., 1990. The mechanics of earthquakes and faulting. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 439.
Stein, R. S., 1999. The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence. Nature 402, 605-609.
Stein, R.S., Barka, A.A., and Dieterich, J.D., 1997. Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since
by earthquake stress triggering. Geophysical Journal International 128, 594-604.
Toda, S., Stein, R. S., Reasenberg, P. A., and Yoshida, A., 1998. Stress transferred by the 1995 Mw=6.9
Kobe, Japan shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities. Journal of Geophysical
Research 124, 439-451.
Wessel, P., and Smith, W. H. F., 1998. New improved version of the Generic Mapping Tools Released.
EOS Trans. AGU 79, 579.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), 1990. Probabilities of large earthquakes
in the San Francisco Bay region. California, U.S. Geol. Surv. Circ. 1053, 51.
Most read articles by the same author(s)