SPACE REGULARITY MANIFESTATION OF THE TEMPORAL VARIATION OF SEISMIC PARAMETERS: POSSIBILITY FOR THE STRONG SEISMIC ACTIVITY ASSESSMENT


George Popandopoulos
I. Baskoutas
Résumé
In the present work the detailed analysis of the space-time variation, of the seismic energy released and b-value was performed, in order to study the space regularity manifestation of the temporal variation of seismic parameters, to test the reliability of the results and to compare the obtained temporal profiles in relation to the strong earthquake activity. The study was carried out in the subduction zone along the western part of the Hellenic trench arc system. The earthquakes data, witch occurs in the five adjacent local areas in the period 1980 -2007 were used. The reliability of the results is tested positively for “internal” dubiety, against independent seismic data sets from adjacent local areas, being in common the processing method, and the properties of seismic catalogue. It was found that in the majority of the cases (23 of 32) the significant temporal variation changes, considered as anomalies, can be related to the preparation process of the strong earthquakes Ms>5.7, acting as intermediate term precursors. Based on these findings the quality index of the successful intermediate term earthquake predictions reach up to 71.9%. It is observed that the temporal variation of the seismic energy released anomalies were time shifted in respect to the central areas, toward to N-NE and S-SE direction. Moreover it is found that the strong earthquakes occurrence also shows immigration, in respect to the central areas, along the concatenation of the adjacent local areas. These two observations may reveal the formation of a tectonic wave, in the broader area south of Zakynthos Island, Its velocity was estimated to be as 100 to 150 km/year
Article Details
  • Rubrique
  • Seismology
Téléchargements
Les données relatives au téléchargement ne sont pas encore disponibles.
Références
Baskoutas I. Papadopoulos G. A. Karakostas V. and Papadimitriou E. 2007. Recent 2005-2006 strong
seismic activity in Greece under the aspect of seismicity parameters temporal variation. Bulletin of
Geological Society of Greece. XXX/3, 1055-1062p.
Baskoutas I. Papadopoulos George and G. Panopoulou, 2004. Long temporal variation of seismic parameter
for seismic pattern identification in Greece.10th International Congress of GSG. Thessaloniki,
April 2004
Bowman, D. D., and G. C. P. King (2001), Accelerating seismicity and stress accumulation before large
earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 4039-4042.
Bowman, D. D., Ouillon, G., Sammis, C. G., Sornette, A., and Sornette, D. (1998). “An observational test
of the critical earthquake concept”. J. Geophys. Res., 103, pp 24359-24372.
Bowman, D., and C. G. Sammis (2004), Intermittent critical and the Gutenmberg-Richter distribution,
Pure Appl. Geophys., 161. 1945-1956.
Earthquake catalogue. Geodynamic Institute of National Observatiry of Athens. (www.gei.noa.gr)
Enescu B. and Ito K. 2003. Values of b and p: their Variations and Relation to Physical Processes for
Earthquakes in Japan. Annuals of Disas. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., No.46 B.
Gao A. and Gao S. S. 2002. Temporal variation of seismic b-values beneath NE Japan island arc. Geoph.
Res. Letters, 29, 9.
Gusev A. A. 1976. Indicator earthquakes and prediction. In Seismicity and Deep Structure of Siberia and
Far East, Nauka, Novosi birsk, 1976 (in Russian), 241 247.
Habermann R. E. and Wyss M. 1984. Background Seismicity Rates and Precursory Seismic Quiescence:
Imperial Valley, California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 74, 1743-1755p
Jenkins, G. M and Watts D. G. 1968. Spectral Analysis and its Applications (Holden–Day Publishing
Co., New York.
Kasahara K. Earthquake mechanics. Canbridge earth sciences series . Univ. of Tokyo 1981
Monterroso Juarez, D. A. 2003. Statistical Seismology Studies in Central America, b-value, seismic hazard
and seismic quiescence, Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of
Science and Technology, Acta Universitalis Upsaliensis, 897, 27 pp. Uppsala, ISBN 91-554-5761-4.
Papadopoulos George and Baskoutas I. 2006. Prognostic character of FastBEE analysis for seismic hazard
assessment in Greece. 2nd International Workshop on Earthquake Prediction, Rion Patras June 26,
Papadopoulos George and Baskoutas I. 2009. New tool for the temporal variation analysis of seismic parameters.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 859-864. (www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/9/859/2009
XLIII, No 4 – 2133
Papadopoulos George, I. Baskoutas and G. Stavrakakis, 2003. Tools for the Fast Estimation of Expected
Big Earthquake in predefined seismic prone areas. 1th International Workshop on Earthquake Prediction.
Athens, November 2003.
Papadopoulos Geras. and Voidomatis Ph. 1987. Evidence of periodic seismicity in the inner Aegean seismic
area. Pageoph 125 4. 613-628p.
Papazachos C. B. and Papazachos B. C. 2000. Accelerated preshock deformation of broad regions in the
Aegean area. Pure and Appl. Geophys. 157, 163-168p.
Steyerberg E. W, Bleeker S. E. Moll H. A. Grobbee D. E. and. Moons K. G. 2003. Internal and external
validation of predictive models: a simulation study of bias and precision in small samples. J. Clin.
Epid. 56(5) 441-448p.
Van Wormer J. D. Gedney L. D. Davies J. N. Condal N. 1976. Vp/Vs and b-values: a test of the dilatancy
model for earthquakes precursors. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2, 11, pp.514-516.
Wiemer, S., 2001. A software package to analyze seismicity: ZMAP. Seismological Research Letters 72,
-382.
Wiemer S. 7 Wyss M. 2002. Spatial and temporal variability of the b-value in seismogenic volumes: An
overview, Advances in Geophysics, 45, 259-302.
Wyss M. and Baer M (1981). Seismic quiescence in the western Hellenic arc may foreshadow large earthquakes.
Nature, 289: 785-787p.
Zavialov A. D. and Sobolev G. A. 1980. Some regularities of seismic regime and earthquake predic tion.
Proc. 17th Gen. Assembly of ESC. Budapest. 65-69.
Zavyalov A. D. 2002. Testing the MEE prediction algorithm in various seismically active re gions in the
-2000 period: results and analysis. // Izvestiya. Physics of the solid Earth, 38, JVs 4 262-275p.
Articles les plus lus par le même auteur ou la même autrice