Οι μετακινήσεις των ψηφοφόρων προς την Ένωση Κέντρου στις βουλευτικές εκλογές του 1963 και του 1964

Abstract

This paper deals with the voter transitions towards the Union of Center in the Greek parliamentary elections of 1963 and 1964. These transitions led from the crash of the centrist political forces in the parliamentary elections of 1958 to the triumph of the Union of Center in the parliamentary elections of 1964. The lack of any individual-level survey data leads to the necessity of using electoral data which are published in aggregate form. The dramatic developments in the ecological inference field in the last decade have provided methods that produce consistent estimates of individual behavior from the analysis of aggregate data. With the innovative available tools and using the available electoral data the modern researcher is able to estimate national level voter transitions. In addition, local flows of voters between any two parties within each electoral region can be estimated. This is a significant feature that even surveys, because of relatively small sample sizes, are not able to provide. The analysis indicates that the Union of Centre managed to defeat the sovereign left-right dipole that had resulted after the 1958 elections. In the 1963 elections only six out the ten Union of Center voters originated from the center of the left-right political spectrum. The 1964 estimates show that the Union of Center retained all the profits acquired in 1963 and extended its influence to the voters of rival political parties.