A detailed study and geographical analysis of electoral volatility, 1996-2000


Κώστας Ζαφειρόπουλος
Abstract

In this article we construct the flows-of voters matrix for Greek elections of the period 1996-2000. We present a detailed analysis on the way that voters shift between parties. In addition we construct a set of matrices, one for each electoral constituency, using a maximum likelihood method for estimation. A geographical analysis is performed on the new set of flows, in order to distinguish between geographical patterns of constituencies and to estimate the impact of parties’ strength on the flows.

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