| More

INTERMEDIATE TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION BASED ON INTEREVENT TIMES OF MAINSHOCKS AND ON SEISMIC TRIGGERING

Views: 391 Downloads: 319
B.C. Papazachos, G.F. Karakaisis, C.B. Papazachos, E.M. Scordilis
B.C. Papazachos, G.F. Karakaisis, C.B. Papazachos, E.M. Scordilis

Abstract


Two models, which contribute to the knowledge on intermediate term earthquake prediction are further examined, improved and applied. The first of these models, called Time and Magnitude Predictable (TIMAP) regional model is based on repeat times of mainshocks generated by tectonic loading on a network of faults which are located in a certain seismic region (faults’ region). The second model, called Decelerating-Accelerating Strain (D-AS) model, is based on triggering of a mainshock by its preshocks. Parameters of the TIMAP model have been specified for the Aegean area and applied by a backward test in 86 circular faults’ regions of this area. The test shows the validity of this time dependent model with 29% false alarms. Data concerning decelerating and accelerating seismic (Benioff) strain, which preceded 46 strong (M≥6.3) recent mainshocks in a variety of global seismotectonic regimes, show that the generation of a mainshock is triggered by quasi-static stress changes due to accelerating preshocks which occur in a broad (critical) region and by static stress changes due to the large number (frequency of occurrence) of small preshocks generated in a narrow (seismogenic) region. Retrospective predictions (postdictions) of these 46 mainshocks by the D–AS model confirms previous results concerning the prediction uncertainties (2σ) of the model in the origin time (± 2.5 years), epicenter location (≤ 150 km) and magnitude (± 0.4) of an ensuing mainshock with a probability ~ 80%. Information is also given on the successful prediction by the D-AS model of: 1) the Cythera strong (M = 6.9) earthquake which occurred on 8 January 2006 in the southwestern part of the Hellenic Arc and 2) of the Rhodes strong (M = 6.4) earthquake which occurred on 15 July 2008 in the Eastern part of this Arc. A backward combined application of both models in the Aegean area shows an uncertainty ≤120km in the epicenter location of an ensuing mainshock.

Keywords


EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION;SEISMIC TRIGGERING;

Full Text:

PDF

References


Allègre, C.J. and Le Mou ël, J.L., 1994. Introduction to scaling techniques in brittle failure of rocks. Phys.

Earth Planet. Inter. 87, 85-93.

Ben-Zion, Y., Dahmen, K., Lyakhovsky,V., Ertas, D. and A. Agnon, 1999. Self-driven mode switching of

earthquake activity on a fault system. Earth Planet. Science Lett. 172, 11-21.

Ben-Zion, Y. and V. Lyakhovsky, 2002. Accelerated seismic release and related aspects of seismicity patterns

on earthquake faults. Pure appl. Geoph. 159, 2385-2412.

Bowman, D.D., Quillon, G., Sammis, C.G., Sornette, A. and D. Sornette, 1998. An observational test of

the critical earthquake concept. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 24359-24372.

Brehm, D.J., and L.W. Braile, 1998. Intermediate-term earthquake prediction using precursory events in

the New Madrid seismic zone. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 103, 24359-24372.

Brehm, D.J., and L.W. Braile, 1999. Refinement of the Modified Time-to-failure Method for Intermediate-term

Earthquake Prediction. J. Seismology 3, 121-138.

Bufe, C.G., and D.J. Varnes, 1993. Predictive modeling of seismic cycle of the Great San Francisco Bay

Region. J.Geophys. Res. 98, 9871-9883.

Das, S. and C. Scholz, 1981. Off-fault aftershock clusters caused by shear stress increase. J. Geophys. Res.,

, 1669-1675.

Dieterich, J.H., 1992. Earthquake nucleation on faults with rate and state dependent strength, in Earthquake

Source Physics and Earthquake Precursors, edited by T. Mikumo et al., Elsevier, NY, 115-134.

Dieterich, J.H., 1994. A constitutive law for rate on earthquake prediction and its application to earthquake

clustering. J. Geophys. Res., 99, 2601-2618.

Evison, F.F., and D.A. Rhoades, 1997. The precursory earthquake swarm in New Zealand. N.Z.J. Geol.

Geophys. 40, 537-547.

Evison, F.F., 2001. Long-range synoptic earthquake forecasting: an aim for the millennium. Tectonophysics

, 207-215.

Fedotov, S.A., 1965. Regularities of the distribution of strong earthquakes in Kamchatka, the Kurile Islands

and Northeastern Japan (in Russian), Tr. Inst. Fiz. Zemli, Akad. Naua SSSR, 36, 66-93.

Freed, A.M., 2005. Earthquake triggering by static, dynamic and postseismic stress transfer. Ann. Rev.

Earth Planet. Sci., 33, 335-367.

Gomberg, J., Beeler, N.M., Blanpied, M.L. and Bodin, P., 1998. Earthquake triggering by transient and

static deformations. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 24411-24426.

Helmstetter, A., 2003. Is earthquake triggering driven by small earthquakes?. Physical Review Letters, 91,

-4.

Helmstetter, A., Kagan, Y.Y. and Jackson, D.D., 2005. Importance of small earthquakes for stress transfers

and earthquake triggering. J. Geophys. Res., 110, B05508, doi: 10.1029/2004JB003286.

XLIII, No 1 – 66

Hill, D.P. and Prejean, S.G., 2006. Dynamic triggering. Treatise on Geophysics, 4, 1-52.

Jaumé, S.C. and L.R., Sykes 1999. Evolving towards a critical point: a review of accelerating seismic moment/energy

release rate prior to large and great earthquakes. Pure Appl. Geophys. 155, 279-306.

Karakaisis, G.F., Papazachos, C.B., Panagiotopoulos, D.G., Scordilis, E.M. and B.C. Papazachos, 2007.

Space distribution of preshocks. Boll. Geof. Teor. Aplic. 48, 371-383.

Karakaisis, G.F., Papazachos, C.B. and E.M. Scordilis, 2010. Seismic sources and main seismic faults in

the Aegean and surrounding area. Bull. Geol. Soc. Greece, (submitted).

Kato, N., Ohtake, M. and T. Hirasawa, 1997. Possible mechanism of precursory seismic quiescence: Regional

stress relaxation due to preseismic sliding. Pure Appl. Geophys. 150, 249-267.

Kilb, D., Gomberg, J. and Bodin, P., 2002. Aftershocks triggering by complete Coulomb stress changes.

J. Geophys. Res., 107, doi: 10.1029/2001JB000202.

King, G.C.P. and M. Cocco, 2001. Fault interactions by elastic stress changes: new clues from earthquake

sequences. Advances in Geophysics, 44, 1-38.

Knopoff, L., T.Levshina, V.J. Keillis-Borok and C. Mattoni, 1996. Increased long-rang intermediate-magnitude

earthquake activity prior to strong earthquakes in California. J.Geophys. Res. 101, 5779-5796.

Mignan, A., D.D. Bowman, and G.C. King, 2006. An observational test of the origin of accelerating moment

release before large earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. Doi:10.1029/2006JB004374.

Mogi, K., 1969. Some features of the recent seismic activity in and near Japan.II. Activity before and

after great earthquakes. Bull. Earthquake Res, Inst. Univ.Tokyo 47, 395-417.

Papazachos, B.C., 1989. A time predictable model for earthquakes in Greece. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 79, 77-84.

Papazachos, B.C. and Ch.A. Papaioannou, 1993. Long term earthquake prediction in the Aegean area

based on the time and magnitude predictable model. Pure Appl. Geophys., 140, 593-612.

Papazachos, B.C., Papadimitriou, E.E., Karakaisis, G.F. and Panagiotopoulos, D.G., 1997. Long-term

earthquake prediction in the Circum-Pacific convergent belt. Pure Appl. Geophys., 149, 173-217.

Papazachos, B.C. and C.B. Papazachos, 2000. Accelerated preshock deformation of broad regions in the

Aegean area. Pure Appl. Geophys. 157, 1663-1681.

Papazachos, B.C., Karakaisis, G.F., Papazachos, C.B., Scordilis, E.M. and A.S. Savvaidis, 2002b. Space

and time variation of seismicity in the region of Greece. Final report to the Greek Earthquake Planning

and Protection Organization (OASP) under project 20242, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki,

Research Committee (3 December 2002), 21pp.

Papazachos, B.C. and Papazachou, C.B., 2003. The earthquakes of Greece. “Ziti Publications, Thessaloniki”,

pp.

Papazachos, B.C., Karakaisis, G.F., Papazachos, C.B. and E.M. Scordilis, 2007. Evaluation of the results

for an intermediate term prediction of the 8 January 2006 MW = 6.9 Cythera earthquake in southern

Aegean. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 97, 1B, 347-352.

Papazachos, B.C. and G.F. Karakaisis, 2008. Present space-time evolution of seismicity in the region of

Greece. Official Report to the Minister of Public Works of Greece, 7pp, 30 June 2008.

Papazachos, B.C., Comninakis, P.E., Scordilis, E.M., Karakaisis, G.F. and Papazachos, C.B., 2008. A catalogue

of earthquakes in Mediterranean and surrounding area for the period 1901-2008, Publ. Geoph.

Laboratory, University of Thessaloniki.

Papazachos, B.C., Karakaisis, G.F., Papazachos, C.B., Panagiotopoulos, D.G. and E.M. Scordilis, 2009.

A forward test of the Decelerating-Accelerating Seismic Strain Model in the Mediterranean. Boll.

Geofis. Teor. Applic.,50, 3, 235-254.

Papazachos, C.B., 2003. Minimum preshock magnitude in critical regions of accelerating seismic crustal

deformation. Boll. Geof.Teor. Aplic. 44, 103-113.

XLIII, No 1 – 67

Papazachos, C.B. and B.C. Papazachos, 2001. Precursory accelerating Benioff strain in the Aegean area.

Ann. Geofisica 144, 461-474.

Papazachos, C.B., Karakaisis, G.F., Savaidis, A.S., and B.C. Papazachos, 2002a. Accelerating seismic

crustal deformation in the southern Aegean area. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 92, 570-580.

Papazachos, C.B., Scordilis, E.M., Karakaisis, G.F. and B.C. Papazachos, 2005a. Decelerating preshock

seismic deformation in fault regions during critical periods. Bull. Geol. Soc. Greece 36, 1491-1498.

Papazachos, C.B., Karakaisis, G.F., Scordilis, E.M. and B.C. Papazachos, 2005b. Global observational

properties of the critical earthquake model. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 95, 1841-1855.

Papazachos, C.B., Karakaisis, G.F., Scordilis, E.M. and B.C. Papazachos, 2006. New observational information

on the precursory accelerating and decelerating strain energy release. Tectonophysics 423, 83-96.

Pollitz, F.F. and Sacks, I.S., 2002. Stress triggering of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake by transient deformation

following the 1992 Landers earthquake. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 92, 4, 1487-1496.

Robinson, R., 2000. A test of the precursory accelerating moment release model on some recent New

Zealand earthquakes. Geoph. J. Int. 140, 568-576.

Rhoades, D.A. and F.F. Evison, 1993. Long-range earthquake forecasting based on a single predictor.

Geophys. J. Int. 113, 371-381.

Rundle, J.B., Klein, W. and S. Gross, 1996. Dynamics of a traveling density wave model of earthquakes.

Phys. Rev. Lett. 76, 4285-4288.

Rundle, J.B., Turcotte, D.L., Shecherbakov, R., Klein, W. and C. Sammis, 2003. Statistical physics approach

to understanding the multiscale dynamics of earthquake fault systems. Rev. Geophys., 41, 5/1-5/30.

Saleur, H., Sammis, C.G. and D. Sornette, 1996. Discrete scale invariance, complex fractal dimensions

and long-periodic fluctuation in seismicity. J. Geophy. Res. 101, 17661-17678.

Scordilis, E.M., 2010. Correlations of the Mean Time and Mean Magnitude of Accelerating Preshocks

with the Origin Time and Magnitude of the Mainshock. Bull. Geo. Soc. Greece, (submitted).

Scordilis,E.M., Papazachos,C.B., Karakaisis,G.F. and V.G. Karakostas, 2004. Accelerating seismic crustal

deformation before strong mainshocks in Adriatic and its importance for earthquake prediction. J.

Seismology 8, 57-70.

Shimazaki, K. and Nakata, T., 1980. Time predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes. Geophys.

Res. Lett., 7, 279-282.

Sornette, D., and C.G. Sammis, 1995. Complex critical exponents from renormalization group theory of

earthquakes: implications for earthquake predictions. J.Phys. I.France 5, 607-619.

Steacy, S., Gomberg, J. and Cocco, M., 2005. Introduction to special section: Stress transfer, earthquake

triggering and time-dependent seismic hazard. J. Geophys. Res., 110, doi: 10.1029/2005JB003692.

Sykes, L.R., and S.C. Jaumé, 1990. Seismic activity on neighboring faults as a long term precursor to large

earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area. Nature 348, 595-599.

Tocher, D., 1959. Seismic history of the San Francisco bay region. Calif. Div. Mines Spec. Rep. 57, 39-48.

Tzanis, A., F. Vallianatos, and K. Makropoulos, 2000. Seismic and electric precursors to the 17-1-1983,

M7 Kefallinia earthquake, Greece: signatures of a SOC system. Phys. Chem. Earth 25, 281-287.

Tzanis, A., and K. Makropoulos, 2002. Did the 7/9/1999, m5.9, Athens earthquake came with a warning?.

Natural Hazards 27, 85-103.

Varnes, D.J., 1989. Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity. Pure

Appl. Geophys. 130, 661-686.

Wyss, M., 1997. Cannot earthquakes be predicted?. Science 278, 487-488.

Wyss, M., Klein, F. and A.C. Johnston, 1981. Precursors of the Kalapana M = 7.2 earthquake. J. Geophys.

Res. 86, 3881-3900.


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2017 B.C. Papazachos, G.F. Karakaisis, C.B. Papazachos, E.M. Scordilis

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.