THE CRITICAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL: OBSERVATIONS IN CRITICAL AREAS OF THE BROADER AEGEAN AREA

PDF (English)
Publiée : Jan 1, 2004
DOI : https://doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.16532
M. C. Kourouzidis
Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens
G. F. Karakaisis
Geophysical Laboratory, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
B. C. Papazachos
Geophysical Laboratory, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
C. Makropoulos
Department of Geophysics and Geothermy, Faculty of Geology, National & Kapodistrian University of Athens
Résumé

The time variation of the cumulative Benioff strain, S, in several critical regions of past mainshocks which occurred in Greece and surrounding area has been examined, in an attempt to check the validity of the critical point concept. For this reason, data concerning the critical regions of twelve strong mainshocks, which have recently been defined by other scientists, have been used and intermediate-sized earthquakes which occurred before and after each mainshock were collected. It was found that the cumulative seismic crustal deformation released by these intermediate magnitude events was accelerating before all the mainshocks considered, whereas the deformation release rate during the respective postshock periods was, in general, lower than the preshock ones

Article Details
  • Rubrique
  • Seismology
Creative Commons License

Ce travail est disponible sous licence Creative Commons Attribution - Pas d’Utilisation Commerciale 4.0 International.

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.

Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g. post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (preferably in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.

Téléchargements
Les données relatives au téléchargement ne sont pas encore disponibles.
Références
Allègre C.J. & Le Mouel J.L. 1994. Introduction of scaling techniques in brittle failure of rocks. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 87, 85-93.
Bak. P., Tang C. & Wiesenfeld K. 1988. Self-organized criticality. Phys. Rev. A, 38, 364-374.
Bak P. & Tang C. 1989. Earthquakes as a self-organized critical phenomenon. J. geophys. Res., 94, 15635- 15637.
Bowman D.D., Ouillon G., Sammis C.G., Sornette A. & Sornette D. 1998. An observational test of the critical earthquake concept. J. geophys. Res., 103, 24359-24372.
Bufe CG. & Varnes D.J. 1993. Predictive modelling of seismic cycle of the Great San Francisco Bay Region. J. geophys. Res., 98, 9871-9883.
Fedotov S. A. 1968. The seismic cycle, quantitative seismic zoning and long-term seismic forecasting, in Seismic Zoning of the USSR, pp. 133-166, ed. Medvedev, S., Moscow.
Geller R.J., Jackson D.D., Kagan, Y.Y. & Mulargia, F. 1997. Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Science, 275, 1616-1617.
Gutenberg B. & Richter CF. 1954. Seismicity of the Earth and Associated phenomena. Hafner, New York.
Imamura A. 1937. Theoretical and applied seismology. Maruzen, Tokyo.
Jaumé S.C. & Sykes L.R. 1999. Evolving towards a critical point: A review of accelerating seismic moment/ energy release rate prior to large and great earthquakes. Pure appi. Geophys., 155, 279-306.
Keilis-Borok V., Ismail-Zadeh Α., Kossobokov V. & Shebalin P. 2001. Non-linear dynamics of the lithosphère and intermediate-term earthquake prediction. Tectonophysics, 338, 247-260.
Knopoff L, Levshina T., Keilis-Borok V.J. & Mattoni C. 1996. Increased long-range intermediate-magnitude earthquake activity prior to strong earthquakes in California. J. geophys. Res. 101, 5779-5796.
Kourouzidis M.C. 2003. Study of seismic sequences in Greece and its contribution to earthquake prediction. Ph.D. Thesis, Univ. of Thessaloniki, pp. 150 (in Greek with English abstract).
Mogi Κ. 1969. Some features of the recent seismic activity in and near Japan. 2, activity before and after great earthquakes. Bull. Earthquake Res. Inst., Univ. of Tokyo, 47, 395-417.
Papadimitriou, E.E. & Sykes, L.R., 2001. Evolution of the stress field in the Northern Aegean Sea (Greece). Geophys. J. Int., 146, 747-759.
Papazachos B.C. 2003. Chaos in seismology and earthquake prediction. International Workshop on Galaxies and Chaos, Theory and Observations. Athens, Greece, 16-19 September 2002,1-22.
Papazachos B.C. & Papazachos C.B. 2000. Accelerated preshock deformation of broad regions in the Aegean area. Pure appi. Geophys., 157, 1663-1681.
Papazachos C.B. & Papazachos B.C. 2001. Precursory accelerating Benioff strain in the Aegean area, Ann. Geofis., 144,461-474.
Papazachos C.B., Karakaisis G.F., Savaidis A.S. & Papazachos B.C., 2002a. Accelerating seismic crustal deformation in the southern Aegean area. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92, 570-580.
Papazachos C.B., Karakaisis G.F. & Scordilis, E.M. 2002b. Results of a retrospective prediction of past strong mainshocks in the broader Aegean area by application of the accelerating seismic deformation method. Proc. XXVIII ESC General Assembly, Genoa, 1-6 September, 14pp.
Papazachos C.B., Karakaisis G.F., Scordilis E.M. & Papazachos B.C., 2003. Global observational properties of the critical earthquake model, (submitted to Bull. Seism. Soc. Am).
Rundle J.B. 1989. A physical model for earthquakes. J. geophys. Res., 94, 2839-2855.
Sammis C. G. & Smith S. W. 1999. Seismic cycles and the evolution of stress correlation in cellular automaton models of finite fault networks. Pure appi. Geophys., 155, 307-334.
Smalley R.F., Turcotte DL. & Solla S.A. 1985. A renormalization-group approach to the stick-slip behavior of faults. J. geophys. Res. 90,1894-1900.
Sornette A. & Sornette D. 1990. Earthquake rupture as a critical point. Consequences for telluric precursors. Tectonophysics, 179, 327-334.
Stein, R.S., 1999. The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence. Nature, 402, 605-609.
Sykes LR. & Jaumé S. 1990. Seismic activity on neighboring faults as a long term precursor to large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area. Nature, 348, 595-599.
Tocher D. 1959. Seismic history of the San Francisco bay region. Calif. Div. Mines Spec. Rep., 57, 39-48.
Triep E. G. & Sykes L R. 1997. Frequency of occurrence of moderate to great earthquakes in intracontinental regions: implications for changes in stress, earthquake prediction, and hazards assessments. J. geophys. Res., 102,9923-9948.
Varnes D. J. 1989. Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity. Pure appi. Geophys., 130,661-686.
Wessel P. & Smith W. 1995. New version of the Generic Mapping Tools. EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. U., 76: 329.
Willis B. 1924. Earthquake risk in California and earthquake districts. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 14, 9-25.
Zöller G., Hainzl S. & Kurths J. 2001. Observation of growing correlation length as an indicator for critical point behavior prior to large earthquakes. J. geophys. Res., 106, 2167-2175.
Articles les plus lus par le même auteur ou la même autrice