The Markov model as a pattern for earthquakes recurrence in South America

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Publiée : Jan 1, 2001
DOI : https://doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.17270
T. M. TSAPANOS
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, School of Geology, Geophysical Laboratory
Résumé

The well known stochastic model of the Markov chains is applied in south America, in order to search for pattern of great earthquakes recurrence. The model defines a process in which successive state occupancies are governed by the transition probabilities pij, of the Markov process and are presented as a transition matrix say P, which has NxN dimensions. We considered as states in the present study the predefined seismic zones of south America. Thus the visits from zone to zone, which is from state to state, carry with them the number of the zone in which they occurred. If these visits are considered to be earthquake occurrences we can inspect their migration between the zones (states) and estimate their genesis in a statistical way, through the transition probabilities. Attention is given in zones where very large earthquakes with Ms>7.8 have occurred. A pattern is revealed which is suggested migration of these large shocks from south towards north. The use of Monte Carlo simulation verify the defined pattern.

Article Details
  • Rubrique
  • Seismology
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