Operationalizing a Framework for Political Instability Risk Assessment: Index Development and Baseline Interpretation

Abstract

Political instability has seen a significant rise in the previous decades, with a significant case number increase. This paper builds on previous research on the topic in order to develop a political instability risk index for calculating the relative probability of a societal/political entity utilizing the means at its disposal for altering the status quo of the system it belongs in, taking into consideration the factors identified in the relevant literature. The methodology used in the development of the index is the one proposed by the OECD Handbook on Composite Indexes. The index takes into consideration nine different indicators, aggregated into two categories. An indicator value scale is also provided for each variable. From a policy perspective, the index offers a feasible, transparent and not overly technical tool which may assist structured risk assessment by security analysts.