A three dimensional, full life cycle, anchovy and sardine model for the North Aegean Sea (Eastern Mediterranean): Validation, sensitivity and climatic scenario simulations


Δημοσιευμένα: Oct 10, 2021
ATHANASIOS GKANASOS
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4818-5262
EUDOXIA SCHISMENOU
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4941-9190
KOSTAS TSIARAS
STYLIANOS SOMARAKIS
MARIANNA GIANNOULAKI
SARANTIS SOFIANOS
GEORGE TRIANTAFYLLOU
Περίληψη

We present the development of a 3D full-lifecycle, individual-based model (IBM) for anchovy and sardine, online coupled to an existing hydrodynamic/biogeochemical low-trophic level (LTL) model for the North Aegean Sea. It was built upon an existing 1D model for the same species and area, with the addition of a horizontal movement scheme. In the model, both species evolve from the embryonic stage (egg+yolk sac larva) to the larval, juvenile, and adult stages. Somatic growth is simulated with the use of a “Wisconsin” type bioenergetics model and fish populations with an adaptation of the ‘super individuals’ (SI) approach. For the reference simulation and model calibration, in terms of fish growth and population biomass, the 2000-2010 period was selected. Interannual biomass variability of anchovy was successfully represented by the model, while the simulated biomass of sardine exhibited low variability and did not satisfactorily reproduce the observed interannual variability from acoustic surveys. The spatial distribution of both species’ biomass was in relatively good agreement with field data. Additional single-species simulations revealed that species compete for food resources. Temperature sensitivity experiments showed that both species reacted negatively to a temperature increase. Anchovy, in particular, was more affected since its spawning and larval growth periods largely overlap with the period of maximum yearly temperature and low prey concentration. Finally, simulation experiments using IPCC climatic scenarios showed that the predicted temperature increase and zooplankton concentration decrease in the future will negatively affect anchovy, resulting in sardine prevalence.

Λεπτομέρειες άρθρου
  • Ενότητα
  • Research Article
Λήψεις
Τα δεδομένα λήψης δεν είναι ακόμη διαθέσιμα.
Βιογραφικά Συγγραφέων
ATHANASIOS GKANASOS, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Department of Physics, Division of Environmental Physics, University Campus, Building PHYS-5, Athens 15784. Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Athens-Sounio Avenue, Mavro Lithari, 19013 Anavyssos, Greece
Research Associate, Institute of Oceanography, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR)
EUDOXIA SCHISMENOU, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Institute of Marine Biological Resources and Inland Waters (IMBRIW), Thalassocosmos Gournes, Heraklion, Crete, Greece

Post-doc Research Associate at the Institute of Marine Biological Resources & Inland Waters (IMBRIW) of the Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR)

KOSTAS TSIARAS, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Athens-Sounio Avenue, Mavro Lithari, 19013 Anavyssos, Greece

Research Scientist at the Institute of Oceanography of the Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR)

STYLIANOS SOMARAKIS, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Institute of Marine Biological Resources and Inland Waters (IMBRIW), Thalassocosmos Gournes, Heraklion, Crete, Greece
Research Director at the Institute of Marine Biological Resources & Inland Waters (IMBRIW) of the Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR)
MARIANNA GIANNOULAKI, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Institute of Marine Biological Resources and Inland Waters (IMBRIW), Thalassocosmos Gournes, Heraklion, Crete, Greece
Assosiate Researcher at the Institute of Marine Biological Resources & Inland Waters (IMBRIW) of the Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR)
SARANTIS SOFIANOS, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Department of Physics, Division of Environmental Physics, University Campus, Building PHYS-5, Athens 15784.

Assistant Professor at the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Department of Physics, Division of Environmental Physics

GEORGE TRIANTAFYLLOU, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Athens-Sounio Avenue, Mavro Lithari, 19013 Anavyssos, Greece
Research Director at the Institute of Oceanography of the Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR)
Τα περισσότερο διαβασμένα άρθρα του ίδιου συγγραφέα(s)