EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA INFERRED FROM CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES

PDF (English)
Publiée : Jul 27, 2016
DOI : https://doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.11824
G. Koravos
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Geology
G. Vougiouka
Department of Mathematics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
T.M. Tsapanos
National Observatory of Athens, Institute of Geodynamis
G. Drakatos
National Observatory of Athens, Institute of Geodynamis
E. Olasoglou
National Observatory of Athens, Institute of Geodynamis
Résumé

The conditional probabilities method is considered to be an alternative approach in order to estimate the earthquake hazard. For this purpose, this technique was applied to the western side of South America, one of the most seismogenic regions of the world. The method is applied in six pre-determined zones which covered the whole examine area. The occurrence of the earthquakes as a function of time was assessed, using the conditional probabilities technique. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied in order to determine the distribution followed by the inter-arrival times between the successive past events. The test shows that the lognormal is the best fit distribution, for the scope of the present work. The obtained results are in good accordance to the method applied. High probabilities are estimated for events with Mw7.0. For the whole western part of South America, there is a probability about 64% for an earthquake occurrence with magnitude M8.0, during a time period of 20 years. Higher probability (≈73%) was estimated for a time period of 50 years and for an earthquake of magnitude M8.5. This is clearly showed for the event of 1960, where the next (a posteriori procedure) earthquake of M=8.8 occurred on 2010.

Article Details
  • Rubrique
  • Geophysics and Seismology
Creative Commons License

Ce travail est disponible sous licence Creative Commons Attribution - Pas d’Utilisation Commerciale 4.0 International.

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.

Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g. post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (preferably in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.

Téléchargements
Les données relatives au téléchargement ne sont pas encore disponibles.
Références
Bilek, S.L., 2010. Seismicity along the South American subduction zone: Review of large
earthquakes, tsunamis and subduction zone complexity, Tectonophysics, 495(1-2), 2-14.
Casaverde, L.A. and Vargas, J.N., 1984. Seismic risk in Peru, Proc. Of the 8th world conference on
earthquake engineering, I, 93-100, July 21-28, San Francisco California U.S.A.
Dewey, J.F. and Lamb, S.H., 1992.Active tectonics in Andes, Tectonophysics, 205, 79-95.
Galanis, O.Ch, Tsapanos, T.M., Papadopoulos, G.A. and Kiratzi, A.A., 2001. An alternative
Bayesian statistics for probabilistic earthquake prediction in Mexico, Central and South
America, Bull. Geol. Soc. Greece, XXXIV/4, 1485-1491, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lognormal_
distribution.
Kanamori, H. and McNally, K.C., 1982. Variable rupture model of the subduction zone along the
Ecuador-Columbia coast, Bull. Seismol. Soc. of Am., 72(4), 1241-1253.
Kelleher, J.A., 1972. Rupture zones of large south American earthquakes and some predictions, J.
Geophys. Res., 77, 2087-2103.
McCann, W.R., Nishenko, S.P., Sykes, L.R. and Krause, J., 1979. Seismic gaps and plate tectonics:
Seismic potential for major boundaries, Pageoph., 117, 1082-1147.
Musson, R.M.W., 2000. Generalised seismic hazard maps for the Pannonian Basin using
probabilistic methods, Pageoph., 157(1/2), 147-169.
Nishenko, S.P., 1985. Seismic potential for large and great interplate earthquakes along the Chilean
and southern Peruvian margins of South America: A quantitative reappraisal, Journ.
Geophys. Res., 90, 3589-3615.
Nishenko, S.P., 1991. Circum-Pacific seismic potential: 1989-1999, Pageoph., 135, 169-259.
Nishenko, S.P. and McCann, W.R., 1981. Seismic potential for the world’s major plate boundaries:
In: Earthquake Prediction, An International Review, Maurice Ewing Ser., Vol. 4,
Simpson, D.W. and Richards, P.G., eds., American Geophys. Union, Washington D.C., 20-28.
Papadimitriou, E.E., 1993. Long term earthquake prediction along the western coast of South and
Central America based on a time predictable model, Pageoph., 140, 301-316.
Prince, R.A. and Scheweller, W.J., 1978. Dates, rates and angles of faulting in the Peru-Chile trench,
Nature, 271, 743-745.
Quezada, F.J., 1997. Seismic observation in Chile, Bull. Intern. Inst. Seismol. Earthq. Engin., 31,
-259.
Scordilis, E.M., 2006. Empirical Global Relations Converting MS and mb to Moment Magnitude,
Journ. Seismology, 10(2), 225-236.
Stein, S., Engeln, J.E., De Meto, C., Gordan, R.G., Woods, D.R., Lundgren, P., Argus, D., Quibble,
D., Stein, C., Weistein, S. and Wiens, D.A., 1986. The Nazca South America convergence
rate and the recurrence of the grate Chilean earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 13, 713-716.
Suarez, G., Gagnepain, J., Cisternas, A., Hatzfeld, D., Molnar, P., Ocola, L., Roecker, S.W. and
Viode, J.P., 1990. Tectonic deformation of the Andes and the configuration of the subducted
slab in central Peru: results from a microseismic experiment, Geophys. J. Intern., 103, 1-12.
Tsapanos, T.M., 2001. The Markov model as a pattern for earthquakes recurrence in South America,
Proc. of the 9th Intern. Congr., Athens, September 2001, 1611-1617.
Tsapanos, T.M. and Burton, P.W., 1991. Seismic hazard evaluation for specific seismic regions of
the world, Tectonophysics, 195, 153-169.
Tsapanos, T.M. and Christova, C.V., 2000. Some preliminary results of the worldwide seismicity
estimation: a case study of seismic hazard evaluation in South America, Ann. di Geofis., 43,
-22.
Articles les plus lus par le même auteur ou la même autrice