Επιδημιολογικά μοντέλα

PDF (ελληνικά)
Publiée : Dec 3, 2019
DOI : https://doi.org/10.12681/jhvms.21636
Α. Μακρόγλου
Δ/νση Μηχανογράφησης Υπ. Γεωργίας
Σ. Κουιμτζής
Κέντρο τεχν. Σπερμ. και Νοσ. Αναπαρ. Διαβατά, Θεσσαλονίκη
Résumé

Περιγράφεται μία κατηγορία επιδημιολογικών μοντέλων που διέπουν τη μετάδοση μολυσματικών ασθενειών. Τα μοντέλα είναι καθοριστικά (deterministic) και όχι στατιστικά. Τα μοντέλα αυτά έχουν την μορφή ολοκληρωματικών και ολοκληροδιαφορικών εξισώσεων. Από τη λύση αυτών των εξισώσεων μπορεί να προβλεφθεί ο αριθμός των μολυσμένων από μία ασθένεια ατόμων ενός πληθυσμού σε χρόνο t>t0 , όταν είναι γνωστός ο αριθμός των ατόμων σε χρόνο t=t0 .

Article Details
  • Rubrique
  • Articles
Creative Commons License

Ce travail est disponible sous licence Creative Commons Attribution - Pas d’Utilisation Commerciale 4.0 International.

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

· Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.

· Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g. post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.

· Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (preferably in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.

Téléchargements
Les données relatives au téléchargement ne sont pas encore disponibles.
Références
Anderson, R.M. and May, R.M.: Population biology of infectious deseases I, Nature 280, 361 -367 (1979).
Diekmann O. : Integral equations and population dynamics, p. 117-149 in: Colloquium Numerical treatment of integral equations, Ed. H.J.J, te Riele, Mathematisch Centrum, Amsterdam (1979).
Diekmann O.: Thresholds and travelling waves for the geographical spead of infection, J. Math. Biol. 6,109-130 (1978).
Diekmann, O.: On a nonlinear integral equation arising in Mathematical Epidemiology, in: Differential Equations and Applications (W. Eckhaus, E.M. de Jager" Eds), 133-140, North - Holland, Amsterdam, (1978).
Diekmann O.: Run for your life. A note on the asymptotic speed of propagation of an epidemic. To appear in J. Diff. Equ.
Diekmann, O.: A nonlinear integral equation describing the geographical spread of infection: the hair - trigger effect, travelling waves and the asymptotic speed of propagation, Report III, 1 o n '-•i+••*- ««•- le Applicazioni del Calcolo « Mauro Picone », Roma, (1978).
Hethcote, H.W., Stech H.W. and Driessche, P. van der: Periodicity and stability in epidemic models: A survey, in: Differential equations and Applications in Ecology, Epidemics and Population problems, (Busenborg S. and Cooke K.L. Eds), Academic Press, 1981.
Hoppensteadt F.: Mathematical theories of Populations: Demographics, Genetics and Epidemics. SIAM Regional
Conference Series in Applied Math., 20, SIAM, Philadelphia, (1975).
Hoppensteadt F. and Waltman P.: A problem in the theory of epidemics. I. II, Math. Biosci. 9, 71-91: 133-145 (197Û-1971).
Kermack W. O. and McKendrick A.G.: Proc. Roy. Soc. A. 115, p. 700-721: 138, p. 55-83: 141, p. 94-122 (1927, 1932, 1933).
Makroglou Α.: A block - by – block method for the numerical solution of Volterra delay integro - differential equations, Computing, 30, p. 49-62 (1983).
May, R. M. and Anderson, R.M.: Population biology of infectious diseases II, Nature 280, p. 455 - 461 (1979).
Mollison D.: Spatial contact models for ecological and epidemic spread, J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B, 39, p. 283-326 (1977).
Soper, Η. E.: Interpretation of periodicity in disease prevalence, J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B, 92, p. 34-73 (1929).
Wilson, L. O. and Burke, Μ. H.: The epidemic curve, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 28, p. 361-366 (1924).
Articles les plus lus par le même auteur ou la même autrice