Επιδημιολογικά μοντέλα

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Pubblicato: Dec 3, 2019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.12681/jhvms.21636
Α. Μακρόγλου
Δ/νση Μηχανογράφησης Υπ. Γεωργίας
Σ. Κουιμτζής
Κέντρο τεχν. Σπερμ. και Νοσ. Αναπαρ. Διαβατά, Θεσσαλονίκη
Abstract

Περιγράφεται μία κατηγορία επιδημιολογικών μοντέλων που διέπουν τη μετάδοση μολυσματικών ασθενειών. Τα μοντέλα είναι καθοριστικά (deterministic) και όχι στατιστικά. Τα μοντέλα αυτά έχουν την μορφή ολοκληρωματικών και ολοκληροδιαφορικών εξισώσεων. Από τη λύση αυτών των εξισώσεων μπορεί να προβλεφθεί ο αριθμός των μολυσμένων από μία ασθένεια ατόμων ενός πληθυσμού σε χρόνο t>t0 , όταν είναι γνωστός ο αριθμός των ατόμων σε χρόνο t=t0 .

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