Μετάβαση στη δημοκρατία και καθεστωτικός μετασχηματισμός: αναζητώντας μια εναλλακτική εξήγηση της διαδικασίας εκδημοκρατισμού

Abstract

The article refers to democratic transition by regime transformation. Starting with a definition of democracy, it tries to review some of the explanations for its emergence offered by various schools of political analysis, namely the structuralist-developmentalist thesis, the class-civil society argument and the elitist explanation. Then, it reviews the factors (nature of the previous regime, economic conjuncture, civil society, the international setting) that influence the decision of an authoritarian regime’s elites to democratise. It regards democratic transition as a game played in various arenas between rational actors (elites and counter-elites) and assumes that participants use as resources the information they possess and the factors mentioned above to bring the negotiations to an end favourable to their interests. It sees démocratisation as an open-ended game, in which many outcomes are possible. It sets the methodological framework for explaining it using institutionalism, to examine the historical process that leads to the opening of the game, and rational choice and game theory to explain the actors’ preferences and tactics during the transition. Finally, it sets a case study application framework using the classic example of the Spanish transition and aiming to apply it to the cases of Turkey in 1983 and Greece in 1973.